What will the population of Earth be in 2200? 💡 as a reminder°hard word, there are no credible°hard word theories for more than a de minimis number of humans to live off-Earth°hard word And, how does AI°hard word affect°hard word this?
Let's suppose, as a ballpark°hard word estimate°hard word, that in the AI°hard word future this number will be 2 billion°hard word. ⚙️ the current world°hard word population, in January 2025, is estimated°hard word at around 8.1 billion°hard word
A naive°hard word person can look at this and, conclude°hard word, "AI°hard word will kill 75% of humans! This is a catastrophe°hard word! We have to do something!" ⚔️ well, actually, the AI°hard word won't kill anyone in this scenario°hard word. the current social engineering to decrease birth-rates°hard word will continue°hard word. one can construct°hard word a simple model based°hard word on urban°hard word/rural°hard word populations, availability°hard word of resources°hard word, and a new term for the memetic°hard word influence°hard word of the internet. or, one can not construct°hard word that model, and just note that birth-rates°hard word continue°hard word to decline°hard word everywhere.
Of course, that take is dangerously wrong. It is very likely that ALL of the possible paths for the next 170 years will have a massive population drop. 💡 as a reminder°hard word, our current population is utterly°hard word dependent on an unsustainable°hard word use of fossil-fuels°hard word. and, more broadly, "mined°hard word resources°hard word". doing°hard word nothing is not an option°hard word.
And the one path that aggressively°hard word claims°hard word otherwise 🔥 roughly, "Elon°hard word Musk°hard word hacks°hard word the simulation to invent propellant-free°hard word rockets°hard word" is completely fictional°hard word.
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You can't just say "the future will have AI°hard word and be bad 💡 bad according to a myopic°hard word metric°hard word, with human population uber alles, so we need to stop it".
Because:
- There are other metrics°hard word that matter
- All of the future paths have issues°hard word