In reply to https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager :
- We are done with software. By the end of 2027, there will be a machine that prints software. It is AGPLv3 licensed.
- None of DeBoer's 2029 economic predictions would be met.
What does it mean to be done with software? It is easiest to describe by what it won't do:
- It won't eliminate lawyers. People still need to talk to someone. 💡 it might be the end of BigLaw
- It won't eliminate doctors. People still need to talk to someone. ⚙️ it won't even mean robots, yet. So people need to do the surgeries.
How large is the machine? 💡 I don't know, but Anthropic already has it. ⚙️ we expect to have a publicly-available repo that can be spun up in any company. 🔥 the AGPLv3 ship launches!
I have considered that LLM-powered development is so transformative to the cost of developing software, that it means that Economic concerns now support an AGPL licensed iOS/Android/web/native software suite.
Unlike the Apache project, it will be curated. At least at the beginning.
In the future, you can just say "write an HR portal" and it will do it.
There will be a cost. ✨ you can do the math