In reply to https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager :
- We are done with software. By the end of 2027, there will be a machine that prints software. It is AGPLv3 licensed.
- None of DeBoer's 2029 economic predictions would be met.
What does it mean to be done with software? It is easiest to describe by what it won't do:
- It won't eliminate lawyers. People still need to talk to someone. 💡 it might be the end of BigLaw
- It won't eliminate doctors. People still need to talk to someone. ⚙️ it won't even mean robots, yet. So people need to do the surgeries.
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How large is the machine? 💡 I don't know, but Anthropic already has it. ⚙️ we expect to have a publicly-available repo that can be spun up in any company. 🔥 the AGPLv3 ship launches!
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I have considered that LLM-powered development is so transformative to the cost of developing software, that it means that Economic concerns now support an AGPL licensed iOS/Android/web/native software suite.
Unlike the Apache project, it will be curated. At least at the beginning.
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In the future, you can just say "write an HR portal" and it will do it.
There will be a cost. ✨ you can do the math