In reply to https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/im-offering-scott-alexander-a-wager :
- We are done with software. By the end of 2027, there will be a machine that prints software. It is AGPLv°hard word3 licensed°hard word.
- None of DeBoer's°hard word 2029 economic°hard word predictions°hard word would be met.
What does it mean to be done with software? It is easiest to describe by what it won't do:
- It won't eliminate°hard word lawyers. People still need to talk to someone. 💡 it might be the end of BigLaw°hard word
- It won't eliminate°hard word doctors. People still need to talk to someone. ⚙️ it won't even mean robots, yet°hard word. So people need to do the surgeries°hard word.
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How large is the machine? 💡 I don't know, but Anthropic°hard word already has it. ⚙️ we expect to have a publicly-available°hard word repo°hard word that can be spun°hard word up in any company. 🔥 the AGPLv°hard word3 ship launches°hard word!
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I have considered that LLM-powered°hard word development is so transformative°hard word to the cost°hard word of developing software, that it means that Economic°hard word concerns°hard word now support an AGPL°hard word licensed°hard word iOS°hard word/Android°hard word/web°hard word/native°hard word software suite°hard word.
Unlike°hard word the Apache°hard word project, it will be curated°hard word. At least at the beginning.
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In the future, you can just say "write an HR°hard word portal°hard word" and it will do it.
There will be a cost°hard word. ✨ you can do the math